Expected Value in Poker
Understanding Expected Value
Expected Value, or EV, is the average amount you expect to win or lose on a given play over the long run. Every decision in poker has an expected value, and the goal is to make the highest EV decision at every opportunity. A positive EV play (+EV) wins money in the long run, while a negative EV play (-EV) loses money.
Understanding EV is the mathematical foundation of profitable poker.
Calculating Basic EV
The basic EV formula is: EV = (probability of winning multiplied by amount won) minus (probability of losing multiplied by amount lost). For example, if you have a 40% chance to win a 100 pot by calling a 20 bet: EV = (0.40 times 100) minus (0.60 times 20) = 40 minus 12 = +28. This positive EV means calling is profitable in the long run, even though you will lose more often than you win.
EV of Common Plays
Every common poker play can be evaluated in terms of EV. Open raising, calling, Three-Betting, Continuation Betting, check-raising, and even folding all have expected values that depend on the specific situation. Skilled players develop intuition for which plays are positive EV through study and experience.
Over time, you learn to quickly identify the highest EV action in common scenarios.
EV and Long-Term Results
Short-term results in poker can deviate wildly from expected value due to Variance. You might make the correct +EV play and still lose the hand. However, over thousands of hands, your actual results will converge toward your cumulative EV.
This is why focusing on making good decisions rather than obsessing over individual results is the hallmark of a professional Poker Mindset.
Maximising EV in Every Decision
To maximise your overall EV, consider every decision point in a hand. Sometimes the highest EV play is not obvious. A slightly larger raise might fold out one extra opponent, increasing your chances of winning the pot.
A check instead of a bet might induce a bluff that you can call for extra value. Always think about which action generates the most long-term profit.
